By ASIF HAROON RAJA

IT IS now an established fact that PPP as a party claiming to be champions of democracy, rule of law and rights of the poor is in actuality anti-democratic, lawbreaker and anti-people. PPP and democracy repel each other since the two are synonymous. PPP leaders have remained too engrossed in filling their coffers with ill-gotten money and in striving to complete their five-year tenure by hook or crook. The only change the PPP leaders have brought in them from their deleterious conduct from 1988 till 1999 is to adopt a policy of selective reconciliation. Under this policy, those cooperating with them or suiting their psyche are to be shielded and protected from the hand of law and rewarded. They have been merrily working on the concept of making hay as long as the sun shines. Their closeness with Army leadership was a marriage of convenience to ensure their survival. The moment they suspected that they could be evicted from power by the Army, they became officious and belligerent.

Having remained out of power for 12 years and gone through trials and tribulations, PPP leaders have turned into hungry predators with ravenous appetite for power and wealth. They consider it their right to plunder because of their prolonged suffering. 12-year inaction has made them languid and inefficient. They swing into action only when their self interests are involved. During their period of exile the runaways had developed contacts with foreign agencies and in their greed to return to corridors of power and to further their selfish interests they sold their souls and agreed to accept any number of demands howsoever injurious to national interests.

Among many blunders committed by Gen Musharraf during his nine-year rule, secret deal with Benazir Bhutto (BB) hatched by USA and UK in July 2007 which paved the way for issuance of black law known as National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) on 5 October 2007 was his gravest sin. It resulted in takeover of power by the NRO washed vultures as a consequent to massively rigged elections in February 2008. Notwithstanding her flaws, BB was charismatic, visionary and had earned a place among world comity. Her sudden death generated a huge sympathy wave which enabled the PPP to capture power. Those in good books of BB were sidelined and the hypocrites adept only in misusing power, disregarding rule of law and multiplying wealth through corrupt practices took up top slots. They befool the jayalas by raising emotional slogans in BB’s memory but have taken no steps to locate her murderers or to fulfill her mission of providing food, shelter and clothes to the poor.

It was owing to over three million bogus voters and programmed pre-poll rigging that the dream team of the US comprising three liberal parties assumed power. Although the manifestos and ideology of PPP, MQM and ANP were different, corruption became the unifying factor. Above all, the master coordinator made the three bedfellows. JUI-F was also shoved in the same bed since greedy Fazlur Rahman was Maulana in name only. Since PML-N’s victory in Punjab was not in the script, Salman Taseer was appointed as governor to keep Shahbaz ministry under pressure. No sooner the government was formed under PM Gilani; the legislators and bureaucrats pounced upon the body of Pakistan and started eating its flesh voraciously. While PPP politicians feasted upon state corporations and foreign aid, MQM milked Karachi and ANP devoured railways. While ANP has remained a steadfast ally of PPP, MQM has been coming in and out of coalition quite frequently. Divided PML-Q is the recent ally.

In accordance with the given agenda by Washington, the ruling clique had consented to denuclearize and secularize Pakistan; minimize the role of military establishment in Pakistan’s decision making processes and to convert Pak Army into a counter terror force only; to place ISI under interior ministry; to push Kashmir issue on backburner or accept Indian plan to make Line of Control as permanent border; to accept India’s hegemony and to virtually convert Pakistan into a compliant state. They agreed to appoint Washington nominated persons on key posts. These included Maj Gen ® Mehmud Durrani as Defence & Foreign Affairs adviser to PM, Husain Haqqani as Ambassador in Washington, Wajid Shams as Ambassador in London, Rahman Malik as interior minister. They agreed to make Pakistan’s economy subservient to IMF; to fight war on terror unquestioningly with full force; to allow drone strikes in FATA from Shamsi airbase; to abide by written and unwritten secret agreements between the US and Mush regime.

Making Zardari as the most powerful civilian president in August 2008, making the legislature under Gilani as a dummy and keeping judiciary under PCO judges were part of the plan to maintain one-window operation between Presidency in Islamabad and power centres in Washington. Slogan of supremacy of parliament was designed to bring heads of three services and ISI completely under the effective control of executive head and supreme commander. Grant of 3-year extension to Gen Kayani and one-year to Lt Gen Pasha on persuasion of Gilani were aimed at making them do as told to do and also to ensure safety of PPP’s fulltime tenure.

When Kayani thwarted government attempts to place ISI under Malik and not to restore sacked judges, and after Raymond’s arrest when he and Pasha started taking preventive measures to safeguard Pakistan’s security interests and that of the two premier institutions, ‘Operation Get Geronimo’ was conceived by CIA. British PM, Zardari, Haqqani, Wajid Shams, Rahman Malik and Salman Faruqui were taken into confidence. False-flag operation was undertaken to belittle Army, ISI and PAF and to undermine the credibility of heads of these institutions so that they could be made pliant. Rulers gladly accepted the US plan since they lacked moral authority to keep the military under their thumb because of their involvement in mal administration and mal practices and loss of confidence of the people.

Since the top leaders were part of the conspiracy, instead of feeling shocked and finding out who were responsible for the security lapse, Zardari and Gilani declared the US intrusion on 2 May as ‘historic’ and ‘great victory’. Haqqani and Wajid’s statements to the media were meaningful. However, when they found that the Army and ISI had taken the incident too seriously and were groping for clues to get to the bottom of the stealth incursion by an ally, and the public was on a rampage, Zardari panicked fearing his involvement might not get exposed. The reason why he got nervous was the intelligence fed to him on 4 May by US Ambassador Munter on the advice of CIA that Army was contemplating a coup. He suggested to him to approach Pentagon since in his view Admiral Mullen could be the only one to restrain Kayani.

When jangled nerved Zardari approached sneaky Haqqani, the latter suggested that unless the yearning desires of Washington were fulfilled it would be difficult for him to convince the US CJSC to twist Kayani’s arm and tell him to keep his hands off civilian government. Getting a nod from him, Haqqani hastened to draft the memo containing six offers and took his old friend Mansoor Ijaz into confidence. He selected him to deliver the explosive memo to Mullen since he like him was anti-Army/ISI and both had been exchanging notes since 2005. Mansoor had also written several articles in newspapers against Pak Army and ISI. Another reason of confiding in him was his close associations with high officials of US military establishment.

Whether Haqqani himself chose him, or someone else advised him, or whether Zardari told Haqqani to draft and deliver the memo, or Salman Faruqui conveyed the message of Zardari to him, or Haqqani suggested to him; or Haqqani did it at his own accord, or Mansoor approached him and fed this idea to him at the behest of CIA are some of the puzzles yet to be solved. My hunch is that memo was engineered by CIA to pitch Army against the government and compel Kayani to takeover power.

Whatever be the hypothesis, it is a proven fact that memo is a reality which was conceived and formulated in early May. It is also a fact that Haqqani and Mansoor traveled to London on 9 May where their meetings with two British senior officials were arranged by Wajid Shams and they flew back to Washington the same day. Mansoor delivered the memo to James Jones and the same was forwarded by him to Mullen on 10 May. Both Jones and Mullen have confirmed receiving the memo on prescribed dates. It is also known that Mullen didn’t take any action on the memo since he had not been fed with intelligence by CIA about the possibility of a coup as feared by Zardari. Mullen was otherwise in no position to caution Kayani who in that timeframe was in black mood and Pak-US military relations had dipped low. Another known fact is that between 9 and 11 May, Haqqani and Mansoor had extensive chats on Blackberry cell phones and also exchanged messages on laptop.

Once the 2 May crisis cooled down and things began to normalize, Zardari and Haqqani forgot about the memo. In their bid to gain confidence of the two generals under fire of media and politicians, Gilani went out of the way to bail them out when they attended All Parties Conference and explained their point of view on 14 May. It was another attempt to make them submissive. Rather than getting defensive and acquiescent, Kayani and Pasha went about dismantling CIA’s network which had tentacles in all important urban centres and also got hold of CIA’s informers. ISI had a mammoth task to locate thousands of CIA agents that had sneaked in on the quiet with the help of Haqqani and Malik and with the blessing of Gilani. Besides CIA, Blackwater and five other intelligence agencies operating from Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan were also to be taken care of.

The US and UK trainers involved in espionage were booted out. Diplomats and NGOs engaged in subversive activities were kept under scrutiny. Security forces continued to maintain offensive posture to keep foreign paid terrorists in FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan on the run. Cross border terrorism from Kunar and Nuristan was plugged. These tough measures were not to the liking of Pakistan’s adversaries who had spent colossal amounts to get closer to nuclear sites and destroy them. Not only they were not succeeding in taming Pak Army and ISI, Afghan Taliban were getting more and more stronger. Series of offensive attacks by Taliban in and around Kabul in August-September unnerved the US military and intelligence leadership.

CIA then decided to play up memo that was lying in pending tray of the new CJSC. This time the purpose was to provoke the Army and ISI to topple the government or as a minimum spoil civil-military relations and then keep provoking both sides and create favorable situation for a headlong clash. Fame hungry Mansoor was nudged to leak the story in Financial Times on 10 October and to gradually heat it up. His story came as a rude shock for Haqqani but he, Zardari and Gilani played it down thinking that Mansoor being a chronic Army basher would not pursue it and also that none will believe him. However, memo case took a dramatic turn after Gen Pasha held a secret meeting with Mansoor in London on 22 October. The meeting convinced the spy chief that memo was not a fantasy but a reality and someone had made a dangerous plan to cause immeasurable harm to Pakistan with the help of US military.

Promises made by the architects of memo had grave implications upon security interests of Pakistan and gave an insight to vile intentions of the authors of memo. The very sovereignty and integrity had been bartered away just to restrain Gen Kayani from launching a perceived coup to let the gang of corrupt remain in power. Playing the film fast forward, Haqqani has been sacked, put on exit control list and a three-member judicial commission is presently investigating the case in response to the petitions filed by seven petitioners including Nawaz Sharif who himself appeared before the SC to submit his petition. While Mansoor has surrendered his rights of his phones, Haqqani has not done so for obvious reasons and has hidden his Blackberry sets saying he has misplaced them.

Haqqani wants the case to be closed forthwith and allowed to proceed abroad since he imagines that he may be killed, but Mansoor wants the probe to reach its conclusion and is ready to come to Pakistan despite threats to his life. The government is also striving hard to dissuade the Supreme Court (SC) to terminate the probe and is also creating hurdles for Mansoor to block his entry in Pakistan thereby heightening suspicions as to why it doesn’t want to ascertain the truth. Mansoor is expected to present himself on 26 January, but being a CIA man, he cannot be fully trusted.

When the memo case took an ominous turn for the schemers and not only put the government in the dock but also Haqqani - the blue-eyed boy of USA, and the Army kept up its defiance against the US dictates, the US military in collaboration with Afghan military attacked Salala Army border posts on 26 November killing 24 soldiers. This blatant intrusion meant to intimidate the Army also backfired. Vital NATO supply lines to Afghanistan remain closed; military and intelligence cooperation has almost ceased. Pakistan Army has rejected US military report on Salala terming it as biased and a mixture of half-truths. Closure of Shamsi base has drastically reduced drone strikes. In two months, only two strikes have taken place. Parliamentary Committee has formulated new terms of engagement with USA. A strategic shift of the government is on the cards. This can be discerned from five-day visit of Gen Kayani to China and Foreign Minister Rabbani’s intended visit to Moscow.

Finding itself in a fix, the US once again fed false news to the government that Army had got aligned with the judiciary and was contemplating a coup. It baffled the already jittery duo owing to closing jaws of memo and NRO and on two occasions with short intervals Gilani spoke offensively against the COAS and DG ISI. Sacking of Secretary Defence was also a knee-jerk reaction which reflected poorly upon Gilani’s conduct particularly when he blew hot and cold and chewed his own words repeatedly. While maintaining an aggressive posture against the Army, Gilani and his legal team also adopted a non-cooperative attitude towards the SC hearing implementation of NRO case.

Gilani and Babar Awan stubbornly maintained that no letter would be written to Swiss courts to reopen money laundering case pending against Zardari since he enjoyed immunity. The President emphatically stated that he will not allow trial of grave of Benazir Bhutto and that he will accept Parliamentary Committee’s decision on memo and not that of SC. When the judicial commission gave itself six options to proceed against the delinquent on 10 January and fixed 16 January as the cutout date to deliver the hammer, Gilani tried to counter the dual threat of judiciary and Army by seeking fresh vote of confidence in National Assembly and to pass a resolution authorizing him to confront the two institutions frontally.

The allied parties however opted reconciliation over confrontation and rendered support for continuation of democracy only. On the 16^th, the SC finally struck and issued a show cause notice to Gilani on the charge of contempt of court and asked him to present himself on 19^th to explain his point of view before the final verdict was announced. Gilani may either be disqualified or imprisoned unless he renders apology to SC and agrees to write a letter to Swiss court, or resigns. Notwithstanding his last minute theatrics, for all practical purposes he has cooked his goose. Chairman NAB who had been behaving arrogantly has come down to earth and submitted his unconditional apology to SC which has been accepted. Babar Awan’s legal license has been temporarily suspended. Decisions of the SC have been hailed by all and sundry except for beneficiaries of NRO who number 8041.

Whatever the decision of the SC on the next hearing, it will not help in stabilizing the political situation which is in a flux, nor in steadying the continuously plummeting economy, or in alleviating the problems of the people, or in ending the war on terror. Although SC will reestablish that it has teeth and can bite, but clash of institutions will benefit the adversaries of Pakistan only. It will be in fitness of things if the government honors the decisions and directives of SC gracefully rather than continuing with its confrontational attitude and making a mockery of itself. Instead of wasting its energies in belittling premier institutions, the government should divert its defiance towards the adversaries of Pakistan. It should sincerely concentrate on solving multitude of problems of the state, or else throw in its towel and let a better team to steer the country out of multiple crises.

The writer is a retired Brig, author of several books and a freelance columnist. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

PAKISTAN may be the only country in the world where persons involved in heinous crimes including treason not only get away unpunished but also hold top appointments. Whatever little sting the law courts and accountability courts had has been smudged by this government. There is no accountability of the corrupt and criminals since the rulers themselves are NRO cleansed. Those wanting accountability of the wrongdoers are scoffed at, threatened and suppressed. Crossing all limits, the PPP leadership is averse to an open and fair probe on a highly sensitive matter of memo having grave implications for national security and integrity. Likewise, it has flouted Supreme Court’s (SC) ruling given on 16 December 2009 making NRO null and void. It continues to maintain a stubborn stance of defiance even after the SC rejected the review petition on NRO and directed the government to implement its order by 10 January 2012. Countdown will terminate on 16 January and the nation is keeping its fingers crossed.

The government is employing all conceivable tricks and techniques under the sun to wriggle out of memo scandal and to prevent reopening of cases pending against President Zardari in foreign courts. It is creating umpteen hurdles in the way of three-member commission investigating memo case and the bench pursuing implementation of NRO. The PPP is past master in delaying tactics and in playing the theme of victimization. The top guns of the PPP involved in massive corruption managed to prevent law courts from delivering judgments for eleven years. Their tactics couldn’t have succeeded without the connivance of weak-willed and purchasable judges and prosecutors. The culture of higher courts under chief justice Iftikhar has undergone a radical change. The apex courts have ultimately realized that the judiciary in Pakistan has earned a very bad name and people have lost faith in judicial system. For too long the judiciary had played into the hands of military and civilian dictators. The higher judiciary had a big role in validating wrongful acts of the rulers and in validating military rules under the miscued doctrine of necessity.

The judges having gone through a prolonged ordeal of two years under a military dictator Gen Musharraf have decided to restore the image and reputation of the judiciary. They appreciate that without the public pressure the sacked judges could not have been restored in March 2009. They know that the people deprived of justice were overjoyed over their reinstatement and hold high hopes in the liberated judiciary. They want to live up to the high expectations of the people by delivering justice based on fairness and without caring for the high status of the accused. The culture of uprightness, honesty and evenhandedness is however alien to the PPP leaders who believe only in cheating, chicanery, looting, delinquency, nepotism and cronyism. They prefer self over national interests; they neither believe in rule of law nor in system of accountability. PCO judges suited them the most and they had tried very hard to retain Dogar as chief justice but failed.

The law makers and upholders of rule of law and constitution are themselves the biggest violators of law. They keep raising the slogan that parliament is supreme but their personal conduct displayed in the last four years of their rule has been deplorable. Not only they have been bending and breaking laws of the land at will, they have been contemptuously defying the apex court with impunity. Never before any government in Pakistan has defied and insulted the Supreme Court so brazenly. Zardari-Gilani duo has been promoting cronyism and favoritism and destroying public corporate enterprises. The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has been made impotent to enable them to shield, protect and promote corrupt and inept officials holding key appointments and to disregard merit. Even those involved in mega scams and convicted by the courts are pardoned by Zardari and reinstated or given better jobs. Adnan Khwaja and Riaz Shiekh are two recent examples. The duo and their loyalists give preference to loyalty to the political party over the state and the constitution. Appointments of Husain Haqqani and Wajid Shams as ambassadors and Rahman Malik as interior minister simply to please Washington give an insight of the outlook of rulers.

Babar Awan with a fake doctor’s degree held the important post of law minister for a long period merely because he maintained a bellicose posture against Sharif brothers. He openly bribed members of Bar Council and lawyers to buy their loyalties and spent millions from exchequer. He has been in the lead to deride and defy the SC. While he mistakenly thinks that his clownish acrobats are cheered by the people, in reality they consider him no more than a court jester pleasing his boss in Presidency. He is principally responsible for putting the ruling party in a blind alley. In his greed to become Punjab Governor or Senate Chairman, he has gone too far and made himself highly vulnerable. The SC sword can fall upon him anytime.

PM Gilani as executive head instead of feeling most concerned about memo affair is least concerned and wants it to be hushed up. He still is of the view that removal of Haqqani from his post should have ended the matter. He got so perturbed over Gen Kayani and Lt Gen Pasha submitting their affidavits to the Supreme Court different to the one submitted by the government that he is not reconciling with it. He had lost his cool on 26 December since he was fed with false intelligence that Gen Kayani was set to overthrow his government. But he cooled down after Gen Kayani issued a statement that he had no intention of launching a coup and toppling a democratic government. He however hastened to add a meaningful sentence in his rejoinder that there will be no compromise on national security.

Seeing that the memo case was taking a dangerous turn and that the two generals were not prepared to take back their affidavits in which it was categorically stated that memo was a reality and must be probed, the PM once again got off balanced on 9 January while giving an interview to Chinese Daily. Fearing that the Army had developed an understanding with the SC, he outlandishly dubbed the depositions of Kayani and Pasha as illegal and unconstitutional on the basis that they had not taken his consent or permission of the Defence Ministry. He thus reignited the fire which had almost died down. His stance was negated by the Attorney General who cleared the mist by saying that replies submitted were very much in accordance with legal procedure.

The five-member SC bench in its sitting on 10 January pronounced President Zardari, PM Gilani, Law Minister Maula Bux Chandio, Babar Awan, Law Secretary Masood Chishti and NAB chief retired Admiral Fasih Bokhari as chief delinquents. It stated that they have consistently been showing naked defiance and apathy towards SC and could be proceeded against on charges of contempt of court. Axes had been honed and raised above shoulders, and heads of the five put on the chopping block, but before bringing down the axes, the accused were given last chance to save their necks from getting chopped. Showing unprecedented restraint in the face of extreme provocation, the SC has dished out six loaded options. The leading option is to disqualify both Zardari and Gilani. However knowing that Jayalas have an old habit of making too much fuss and complaining that they have been indicted unheard, milder options include letting Zardari to appear before the court to plead for immunity; or the PM to resign and hold early elections. The government has to choose one of the options till the next hearing scheduled on 16 January.

As if his harmful interview was not enough, Gilani further upped the ante by sacking Secretary Defence retired Lt Gen Lodhi on charges of misconduct and creating misunderstanding between institutions and gave additional charge of Secretary Defence to his blue eyed Secretary Nargis Sethi. His only fault was that the Personal Secretary of PM had called him in his office and asked him on behalf of PM to sign the affidavit concerning memo case prepared by the government, but he regretted to do so. Lodhi has decided to approach the court and plead his case that he has been unjustly removed from service without giving him show cause notice or carrying out any inquiry.

It was speculated that Gilani’s offensive move had been made to pave the way to sack Army chief and DG ISI. The Army launched a quick riposte in the form of a terse rejoinder which not only clarified that routing of affidavits were strictly in line with laid down legal procedure but also gave a veiled warning that indigestible insinuations would have serious repercussions. Gen Kayani called a conference of his PSOs and corps commanders next morning. Adding to it was the newspapers story about newly posted brigade commander of notorious 111 Brigade. It gave a loud message that the Army would not take the insults lying down.

Despite assurances given by Army Chief that he respects democracy and the Chief Justice who said that the door to martial law has been shut forever, Zardari, Gilani and his confidantes continue to suffer from hallucinations of a military coup. Puppet Gilani whose strings are in the hands of Zardari has become so confused that he is taking somersaults repeatedly and eating his words. There must be something to hide that Haqqani and his guardians are feeling so disturbed and are feeling so edgy. Wittingly or unwittingly, the corrupt and inept government is opening the door for the Army to step in so that it could become a political martyr, but Kayani has no such intentions and would like a change taking place through democratic process.

Finding itself stuck in a blind alley, Gilani in consultation with Zardari called an emergent session on 12^th January in his bid to seek vote of confidence and then declare war against the judiciary and Army’s top leadership. But his effort backfired because of lukewarm response of allied parties who didn’t favor policy of confrontation. Seeing that Gilani was heading towards a head on suicidal clash with the judiciary as well as the Army, the three allied parties of PPP got nervy and firmly advised its leadership to avoid collision at all costs and opt for reconciliation.

Nawaz and Imran have warned of launching country wide protest movement if the government tries to defy SC ruling on 16^th and doesn’t hold early elections. PML-N is actively contemplating en-block resignations from Assemblies. These fast forward events have taken the wind out of the sails of jingoistic PPP leadership and it is quite likely that from now onwards there will be a visible change in its attitude and things would get back to normal. Holding of Defence Committee meeting on 14 January chaired by PM and attended by CJSC and three services chiefs has been viewed as a positive sign and it seems that ice has begun to melt.

Irrespective of the apparent thaw, one thing is clear that government-Army relations will not be as cordial as they were prior to 2 May. The Army will not support the government in its confrontation with the judiciary. The government will avoid fighting political war on two fronts. In the face of twin threat, Zardari will make concerted efforts to regain confidence of the Army chief. One way is that he uses his discretionary powers to reinstate sacked Secretary Defence. He will also advise Gilani that rather than he getting disqualified, he should voluntarily resign so as to pacify SC and thus ease pressure of judiciary on him and the government. This move will enable the government to buy time, hold Senate elections and be in a stronger position to make preparations for elections by October and also to take some corrective measures to improve its image.

Saner elements however disfavor early elections arguing that no single party will be able to gain simple majority to form a government. A hung parliament with the same lot of politicians in their view will be unable to steer the country out of the mess created by current government. They opine that chief justice backed by Army should be mandated to form a care taker regime for about two years, which should select honest and efficient technocrats capable of clearing the mess. In my view, Imran Khan should head this regime. Once the economy comes out of the woods, institutions become healthy, fresh electoral rolls are prepared by independent Election Commission, fair and free elections could then be held. Or else, people may be asked at the termination of caretaker regime’s tenure whether they would prefer the government of technocrats or parliamentary system. There is lot of weight in this suggestion and may be pondered over.

The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance columnist. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

Former foreign minister Khursheed Mahmood Kasuri reacts to crowds as Imran Khan and others look on.

THE career of Imran Khan, a cricketer turned politician, is full of colours, contradictions, and controversies. Since his debut in cricket in 1971 initially, and later in 1976 onward, he became known as a socialite due to his non-stop partying at London nightclubs such as Annabel's and Tramp and further gained notoriety in London gossip columns for romancing young debutantes such as Susannah Constantine, Lady Liza Campbell and the artist Emma Sergeant. Then came Sita White; her paternity claim in NY court of law for Tyrian Khan, to be the daughter of Imran Khan, that fully exposed the former World Cup winner in the eyes of common Pakistanis beside being his philanthropic work of Shaukat Khannum Hospital.

With this flamboyant past, he entered the politics in 1996 with emphasis on anti-corruption policies, formed Pakistan Tahreek e Insaaf (PTI) and tried to broker a deal with the then dictator, Pervaiz Musharraf to take the powerful portfolio. It didn’t work well even with all foreign blessings; hence he walked out from National Assembly (2002-7) where he had only one seat. Partially his involvement in Lawyers Movement, to restore Ifthikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, had given PTI and himself a life line to take some ground in active politics and gain some popularity. His initial stance over missing persons, Dr. Afia Siddiqui’s disappearance, her unlawful detention & then single-sided trial in US, drone attacks in tribal areas of Pakistan, and louder voice over Baluchistan issues, have transformed him from power-hungry aristocratic drawing-room politics to people’s politics!

After the success of his Lahore political-cum musical show, number of his supporters often called him as Prime Minister-in-waiting, had gained some extra confidence by calling himself as the third political force in Pakistan who would sweep coming general elections. He termed his success as Tsunami – a pseudo name given after 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that was the deadliest natural disaster in human history that killed around 230,000 people in 14 countries, likely calling his upcoming political gains as Tsunami against traditional politicians.

Unfortunately, even before this Tsunami begins, Imran Khan started taking U –turns against his own pre-defined political policies and opened PTI doors wide for all feudal politicians of past, especially close aides of former dictator. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Khurshid Kusuri, Jehangir Tareen, Sardar Asif Ahmed Ali are few old friends of Musharraf, to name with the exception of Javed Hashmi, joined hands with Imran Khan to become the part of upcoming political Tsunami. Someone rightly pointed out that “with the induction of so many Musharraf’s ministers in today’s’ Imran PTI looks like that Imran has joined Q league.” In coming years, this might turn out to be a real threat when Imran Khan’s voice -in his own PTI- would be considered feeble due to the presence of large number of Musharraf friends.

Those who watched Khurshid Kasuri’s PTI joining ceremony, has noticed an amazing act of chairs snatching by the participants. Rather than guiding the voters, this shameful-act was shamelessly endorsed by PTI secretary information Shafqat Mahmood and chairman Imran Khan, as an act of “innocent people” because they are fed up of Zardari regime; so “they might take away chairs of govt. office bearers.” This is a clear indication that how Imran Khan will be swept by Musharraf’s friends when the need of time would come!

His second u-turn came when he had brokered a ‘silent deal’ with Altaf Hussain, leader of MQM who controls Karachi from London, to arrange his public meeting in Karachi on 25 December 2011 leaving behind all the hot conversation he has had against MQM founding leader and an ambition to file a case against him in London court. It was learnt that he had an out of court settlement with MQM and agreed that “Sita White case” will not be brought to justice in US by MQM and in reply he will not file petition against Altaf Hussain in London. This “settlement” was visible in Karachi while addressing his supporters; Imran Khan did not utter single word about MQM leader, forgetting his own previous statements about later and MQM atrocities on 12 May 2007, when numbers of PTI workers were killed by Mutahidda terrorists! His stance against MQM self-exiled leader has created doubts that “hidden” hands are brining MQM and PTI closure for upcoming electoral alliance against PML (N) and ruling PPP.

In past, Imran Khan had always raised his voice against the drone attacks in tribal areas of Pakistan. Under the shadows of “Salalah check post attack by US & NATO forces,” recent statement of US ambassador, Cameron Munter that “Imran Khan is not against US” has astonished large section of society in Pakistan who foresees Imran as hardliner against US policies in the region. However it was observed that US ambassador statement came up only when Imran Khan has quietly visited US state department and expressed “his case” to Washington; an act known to very few in Pakistan and even in the folds of PTI. Probably, this was the reason due to that Imran Khan didn’t attend Difa e Pakistan rally, the public meeting arranged by 40 religious parties in Lahore on 18 December 2011, to pass a soft message to US at this crucial juncture of time when Zardari-led PPP government is shacking due to a small piece of paper penned by an American!

Imran Khan has always been at the forefront of highlighting missing persons issue including Dr Aafia's case. In one of his speech he had demanded that “the Government of Pakistan should tell us how Dr Aafia ended up in Afghanistan with her three children; how can a frail woman attack US marines; why has the Government of Pakistan not taken any active measures to bring her back home to face any trial. The Government needs to expose those who have aided and abetted the kidnapping of Dr Aafia,” while he was referring Pervaiz Musharraf govt. After that he has asked PTI members to actively participate in demonstrations, vigils across the globe. Upon his directive Mohammad Kassam, member of PTI, UK was one of the several people who had kept the seven days vigil outside the US Embassy, spending up to twenty hours in the wet weather of London. In recent days, the world has witnessed that the foreign minister of Pervaiz Musharraf regime who has joined PTI recently, while addressing one of the public meeting was sitting next to Imran Khan at the stage where as down among the crowd, there were one or two flags showing few slogans about the release of Afia Siddiqui but Imran Khan didn’t say few words about Dr Afia’s case or her release from US custody! Time has changed; a leader is born and gained popularity by using these burning issues and now no need to look upon these forgotten souls!

Could Imran Khan be the real savior of people of Pakistan or Pakistanis are going to witness same old wine in a new bottle with fancy cricket label having singers like Abrar ul Haq and Shahzad Roy selling his political agenda over popular Pakistani national tunes! Time will confirm that anti-corruption policies were just few words and slogans to gain popularity or actual agenda of PTI to implement, the shadows of flamboyant past are still visible or re born under the banner of musical nights, a real saviour of Pakistan has arrived or Mr. 20% has arrived after Mr. 10%, would history has repeated itself when someone has accepted the help of hidden hands of establishment or used the shoulder of common men to gain power!!!!

How a party -new or old- with slogan of “change” they could bring positive change in society when they have migratory birds like PPP former foreign minister, Musharraf’s former foreign minister or bunch of kings’ party holders, would have to think as why these traditional politicians are strengthening the hands of a gentleman who only won one seat in any general elections? The answer is simple. In Pakistan, the traditional politicians (vultures) are very “sensible”. Since then they realized that now the “powerful hand” is on Imran Khan’s head, and they know by sure that the power would fall on him, they started gathering around him to share the piece of flesh and bone of Pakistan. That’s what the political history of Pakistan of last 60 years!

While Pakistan is restructuring its foreign policy that had been tailor made to suit American interests only, the US is striving to normalize Pak-US relations but there will be no more business as usual. Process of peace with Pakistani Taliban should be given a push to end the self-destructive war on terror.

WHEN the US decided to invade Afghanistan and topple Taliban regime led by Mullah Omar since it had refused to hand over Bin Laden suspected of being involved in 9/11 attacks, all the neighbors of Afghanistan including near neighbors supported USA. Among the immediate neighbors, Pakistan was the only country which enjoyed cordial relations with Taliban but still decided to go along with the decision of the international community. Even Russia, China and Iran antagonistic towards USA didn’t raise any objection. The reason was that all the regional countries were averse to extremist policies pursued by Taliban regime. It’s Sharia based ideology had become a threat to the six Central Asian Muslim Republics ruled by secular leaders, Russia, China and Iran. Islamic movements in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Xingjiang had drawn inspiration from Afghan Jihad and Taliban movement.

Iran was averse to Sharia based ideology of Taliban since it posed a challenge to export of Shiaism in the region. At one stage, Iran had deployed its forces along eastern border and had threatened to attack but backed off when Mullah Omar warned that Iranian military would get stuck in the glue of Afghanistan. Like Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan provided airbases to USA. India was most affected since the Taliban had almost wiped out its influence in Afghanistan and was desperate to regain its lost influence and thus gain entry into mineral resources rich Central Asia.

While all the regional countries had welcomed the US military action in Afghanistan, except for Karzai regime and India, all other countries now want the US led forces to pack up and leave. At the same time, none other than Pakistan want the Taliban to regain power. Even the US which is desperately trying to convince the Taliban to sit and talk wants them to share power with Northern Alliance as junior partners. Pakistan is an exception since it has suffered so grievously at the hands of Northern Alliance heavy Kabul regime that it strongly feels that Afghanistan under Taliban would prove to be a much better neighbor. Pakistan under no circumstances can afford to have hostile eastern and western borders.

The Taliban also know that they are friendless and the only country which has some soft corner and human feelings for them is Pakistan and none else. Although Pakistan played a deleterious role by assisting the US to forcibly topple an elected government in Kabul in November 2001 and till late November this year it was providing logistic supply routes to NATO containers, yet the Taliban are somewhat malleable towards Pakistan. They understand that Pakistan had no choice but to comply with George W. Bush’s dictates. They also appreciate that people of Pakistan have suffered a great deal on account of war on terror and that great majority dislike USA and sympathize with the cause of Taliban. It is in the wake of these varying impressions that the Taliban distrust all but they may listen to Pakistan to talk and work out a negotiated political settlement. They know that Pakistan has hardly any friend among the stakeholders in Afghanistan and others that are trying to broker peace.

So far the Afghan Taliban were rejecting the US dictated three-point peace formula and insisted that all foreign forces must quit to allow the Afghans to decide their own future. The Taliban demand release of their five prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay. Their representative was not invited to Istanbul and Bonn conferences because of which the meetings proved inconsequential. Taliban have now agreed to open their political office in Qatar which is seen by western officials as a step towards reaching a negotiated political settlement. Afghan government and Afghan High Peace Council have welcomed it and said they have no objection to the Taliban-US getting engaged in diplomatic parleys. The US which till recent considered both al-Qaeda and Taliban as foes has now amended its stance by asserting that Taliban is not its enemy. In its keenness to expedite the process of reconciliation and early settlement, it may agree to release the prisoners to make the Taliban soften their stance. Sensing a change in atmosphere, a delegation from Hikmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami met Karzai in Kabul.

The Taliban in Pakistan who have sworn allegiance to Mullah Omar as their supreme leader would stop hating Pak Army the day they are convinced that that it is not fighting America’s war for dollars. They admire the valor and determination of Army soldiers and grudgingly admit that they are tough opponents. They have also learnt to their surprise that both officers and jawans are God fearing Muslims. The stiff stance taken by the Army and ISI in the face of America’s belligerence has brought a slight change in their perception and attitude and they are actively thinking of coming to terms with the Army.

Maulvi Faqir, commander of Taliban chapter Bajaur who is now based in Kunar after he and his militants were shunted out from Bajaur by security forces in 2009 has expressed his willingness to negotiate on Pakistan’s terms. This offer was made in the wake of decision taken by the resolution of the two Houses of the Parliament that dialogue with Pakistani Taliban should be initiated and also after seeing that security forces had started defying the US. On the eve of New Year, Mullah Omar issued a leaflet in North Waziristan (NW) directing Afghan and Pakistani Taliban and other affiliated militant groups to stop their fight against Pak armed forces and refrain from killing innocent people in Pakistan. He urged them to forge unity for a single cause and to focus attention against ISAF in Afghanistan since the war was in a decisive stage.

He expressed his displeasure over suicide attacks, kidnapping for ransom which he said were un-Islamic practices. A five-member Shura comprising members from various groups including Hakimullah Mehsud’s TTP, Maulvi Nazir’s group in South Waziristan (SW), Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s group and Haqqani network in NW has been formed to ensure stoppage of un-Islamic practices and to punish the guilty in accordance with Sharia laws. Hakimullah who is finding it exceedingly difficult to keep his sub-commanders under his control after his ouster from SW, agreed not to target innocent civilians but said suicide bombings and fighting against security forces would continue. Jamaat-e-Islami chief Munawar Hassan has exhorted Gen Kayani to hold dialogue with Taliban particularly when the US was holding dialogue with Afghan Taliban. He and Maulana Fazlur Rahman pressed the government to stop toeing America’s line and strive to enhance Pakistan’s prestige. Imran Khan who is riding the crest of popular wave has promised to make Pakistan an Islamic welfare state.

In 2010, violence was at its peak. 10,003 fatalities took place in that year. 2011 saw a decline in terror related incidents as well as in drone strikes and casualties which dropped to 7,107. Total of 2985 violent incidents of all sorts took place last year as compared to 3393 in 2010. FATA was the most affected area followed by Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Fatality toll of 820 in KP in 2011 was the highest. 300 suicide attacks have occurred since 2004 and in this highest rate was in 2009. While the security forces remained committed in all the agencies of FATA and some parts of KP in 2011, their heaviest involvement against the militants was in Mohmand, Orakzai, Kurram and Khyber Agencies. All told, 144 attacks were launched in which 1016 militants were killed, 4219 arrested and 279 surrendered. 57 teenagers trained by Swat militants under Fazlullah to become potential suicide bombers have been rehabilitated by Mashal Institute opened by Army in Swat.

Politically motivated target killings in Karachi that had peaked in 2011 were brought under control in September after the intervention of Supreme Court and grant of police powers to Sindh Rangers at the behest of Gen Kayani. In Balochistan, the Frontier Corps has managed to keep the Baloch separatists on the run without launching any operation while the Army has kept itself aloof and is concentrating on development works in interior Balochistan including enrolment of Baloch youth in Army and converting Sui town into an educational city. Likewise, development works in war affected SW is going on under the direct supervision of Army. After inauguration of Wana Cadet College, another one will be launched in April this year in Spinkai Raghzai. Mohmand and Bajaur Agencies will also have cadet colleges.

Troublesome regions in Upper Orakzai and Central Kurram Agencies are being cleared of the presence of militants and substantial progress has been achieved. As a consequent to sustained efforts of security forces, incidents of terrorism in urban areas have almost ceased. Since the closure of NATO supply lines in reaction to Salala attack on 26 November, no drone strike has occurred. Visits of hard nose intrusive American officials have terminated and the people have not heard the nauseating do more demand for the last six weeks. While Pakistan is restructuring its foreign policy that had been tailor made to suit American interests only, the US is striving to normalize Pak-US relations but there will be no more business as usual. Process of peace with Pakistani Taliban should be given a push to end the self-destructive war on terror.

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

By ASIF HAROON RAJA

PAKISTAN’S adversaries huddled in Kabul had chalked out a comprehensive covert game plan in 2001 to destabilize, denuclearize, de-Islamize and fragment Pakistan spread over several years. They had pinned high hopes in Gen Musharraf and his King’s Party to help them in the realization of their hidden objectives. Massive expansion of media channels was part of the program to promote secularism and to damage Islamic identity. When they found that Musharraf was not allowing them to gain access to nuclear program, he and his political set up was changed in 2008 and they brought in new leadership totally submissive to Washington’s commands. With their cooperation, the schemers started weakening the economy and public sector enterprises and energy sector.

Six topmost intelligence agencies led by CIA were pitched against the ISI to discredit and defang it. Considering the Army to be the chief bottleneck, they had held high hopes in TTP in FATA, TNSM in Swat and BLA-BRA in Balochistan to enfeeble it. These militant groups had been provided huge funds, training facilities, arms, explosives, sophisticated communication sets, technical know-how of making suicide jackets, techniques of brainwashing suicide bombers and making improvised explosive devices together with intelligence support to enable them to confront major part of the Army, fix and possibly defeat it. Swat, Bajaur and South Waziristan were prepared as killing grounds to trap and annihilate security forces.

When the Army and ISI poured coldwater on the designs of the adversaries in 2009, the latter then laid out another trap in North Waziristan (NW) where they hoped all the militant groups in FATA as well as Afghan Taliban would jointly confront Corps size force and contain it. Use of additional troops to beef up existing force in NW in addition to 145000 troops already operating in trouble spots would have been at the cost of losing balance along the eastern front. This imbalance would have then been exploited by India by launching its Cold Start doctrine.

When the Army leadership parried the pressure and made its position clear that the new front will be opened only if it was in Pakistan’s interest, the US decided to discredit the Army chief and DG ISI. 2 May helicopters assault to get Bin Laden was aimed at giving a crippling blow to the reputation of the Army and ISI. Indo-US-western media in close collaboration with foreign paid journalists and media anchors launched a vicious campaign against Gens Kayani and Pasha. After Mehran naval base attack on 22 May, Naval chief was also brought in the firing line. Kerry Lugar Bill had an exclusive share of $50 million for Pakistan’s media. Loyalties of as many as 100 journalists and anchors had been bought who enthusiastically played foreign tutored themes.

Geo anchor Hamid Mir, Najam Sethi, Ahmad Rashid and several others like Asma Jahangir were in the vanguard of propaganda brigade undermining the élan and image of the leadership of Army, ISI and Navy. Pseudo intellectuals Hamid, Najam and Rashid spread half-truths and created misgivings in their bid to get into good books of their paymasters. They are continuing to cast aspersions on Army and ISI even today in the aftermath of memo scandal which erupted in October and Salala incident on 26 November. Najam has shifted to the home of his patrons and is spewing venom against the military and ISI from his new abode in USA. Fame hungry Hamid’s allegation that he is being threatened by intelligence agencies on phone (implying ISI) and that he has telephone numbers seems absurd since Army telephone numbers do not appear on the recipient’s phone. Rashid didn’t deem it proper to express sympathy or offer his condolence over the tragic martyrdom of 24 soldiers at Salala at the hands of NATO. Instead of condemning the attackers, he picked on Pak Army and projected it as an impediment to peace in Afghanistan. There is no dearth of suchlike snakes in the grass in Pakistan who have sold their souls for material benefits.

In order to further intensify pressure, Pakistan’s adversaries sitting in Kabul heated up its western border from May 2011 onwards and runaway militants from Swat, Bajaur and South Waziristan were launched from Kunar to make Mohmand, Bajaur, Dir and Chitral turbulent. Pak Army not only put an end to cross border forays but also refused to jump into the cauldron of NW. It ignored the US shrill alarms that Haqqani network (HN) had become a grave threat. Besides, the Army and ISI started taking emergent measures to checkmate the unwanted influence of US spy network.

While the US and UK military trainers were repatriated, movement of diplomats outside their place of duty was kept under observation. Finding their freedom of action in Pakistan getting curtailed, the US in sheer exasperation directly pointed fingers at ISI that it was linked with HN and had jointly planned and executed attacks in Kabul on 13 September and murder of Burhanuddin on 20 September. In addition, the US froze $ 800 million Close Support Fund (CSF) which was to be paid for services rendered by Pak Army in war on terror and threatened to stop aid altogether. Threats of unilateral action were also hurled. Karzai regime stood alongside the US in accusing Pakistan.

When Pak Army didn’t budge and maintained its defiant stance, ISAF and ANA jointly planned the attack on Pakistan’s two military posts in Mohmand Agency that were obstructing the movement of infiltrators from Kunar. The helicopters assault was carried out on 26 November to give another mortifying blow to the credibility of Army. Instead of weakening the resolve of Army’s leadership, the massacre of 24 officers and men further steeled the tenacity of Gen Kayani.

The government and the Army jointly took series of actions to express their anger which included closure of supply routes and Shamsi airbase, boycotting Bonn conference, calling back military liaison officers from Afghanistan and refusing to take part in ISAF’s inquiry because of predisposed opinion given by the US/NATO senior officers that it was accidental and not deliberate. The investigation report opines that mistakes were committed by NATO but both sides are to be equally blamed for the tragedy. Pakistan has rejected the biased report and wants the inquiry to be done by an impartial body. The sad incident has created a wide gulf between the two armies that have remained on friendly terms since early 1950s.

While Pak-US relations have hit rock bottom and so far chances of recovery is slim mainly because of the US egotism and refusal to offer apology, memo affair has also taken a serious turn. The case is in the Supreme Court and the President, Army Chief, DG ISI, Husain Haqqani have been made respondents. Possible linkage of memo affair with 2 May episode has made the situation dicey. Submissions of replies to the Supreme Court by COAS and DG ISI independently led to serious misunderstanding between the government and the Army and for sometime it seemed as if a showdown was round the corner after the PM’s diatribe against Army chief, DG ISI and Secretary Defence on 22 December.

Memogate has become the bone of contention since the government has taken the plea that it was a non-issue and must be ignored, while Kayani and Pasha maintain that memo was a reality and the issue was of grave nature and must be probed to get to the bottom of it. The matter has for the time being been defused by the PM by lauding the services of the heads of the two institutions and explaining that his tirade was not against the Army or ISI. He disappointed Army bashers by dispelling the rumor that he may sack COAS and DG ISI. Notwithstanding his assurances and apparent normality in government-Army relations, things are not as smooth as they were prior to memo scandal and their relations will remain tense. The government is already under extreme stress owing to disturbed political situation, collapsing economy, the sword of NRO hanging on its head and Tehrik-e-Insaf, PML-N and religious parties demanding early mid-term elections.

The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance analyst and columnist. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

WHILE the US military and NATO have off and on committed unfriendly and hostile acts against its ally Pakistan since 2006, attack on Salala on 26 November by NATO helicopters killing 24 soldiers and injuring 16 was by far the worst. It was a premeditated and well-calculated massacre meant to give a tough message to Pakistan to behave or face the music. The big question is why this gruesome attack was launched at a time when things are not going well for ISAF and Pakistan’s cooperation in the endgame of Afghanistan is vital. The attack didn’t occur at the spur of the moment but in my reckoning was the cumulative affect of unreasonable grouses which Washington has been gathering against Pakistan over the years. It will be worthwhile to recapitulate some of the major events of the yesteryears.

There is no denying the fact that the US made Pakistan its coalition partner in war on terror because of its motivated interests and not because of love of Pakistan. The US had ditched Pakistan in 1989 and had befriended India. Over the years, the gap between USA and Pakistan kept widening mainly because of influence of India and Israel. Differences further widened after Pakistan turned nuclear and military dictator took over. Indo-US-Israel nexus formed in mid 1990’s saw nuclear Pakistan with a strong conventional military power and fairly strong technological base a big danger to its future designs and had marked it as a target. With the active blessing of Washington, Indian and Israeli jets had on few occasions come close to destroying Kahuta plant.

Therefore to say that there was a sudden change of heart after 9/11 is absurd. Pakistan was never regarded a friend by USA and will never consider it in future as well. It has been hiring Pakistan to serve its short-term interests and rudely pushing it aside after its objectives were accomplished. A stage has been set for another boorish break-up. The only difference is that in all previous marriages of convenience, Pakistan was not the target; this time it is the target.

The Indo-US-Israeli nexus duly joined by UK and Germany had made up their minds to make judicious use of Afghan soil for denuclearizing and Balkanizing Pakistan and making it a satellite of India through covert means. Well-sounding phrases like ‘making amends for past mistakes; and ‘lasting relations’ were gimmicks to dupe Pakistan and after lulling the senses of its leadership and disabling the nukes, striking it from within at an opportune time. India also embarked upon similar strategy to befool Pakistani leaders that it would resolve all core issues including Kashmir. In reality, it wanted to make Pakistan forget about Kashmir and accept its hegemony. While our adversaries on the quiet kept weaving the web around Pakistan, our myopic leaders lured by aid flow kept praising them and calling them their sincere friends.

In its honeymoon with the US, Pakistanis got the first jolt when George W. Bush administration struck highly controversial Indo-US civilian nuclear deal in March 2006 and didn’t give the same to Pakistan. The US went out of the way to build India’s military power and its nuclear strength without caring for the regional military imbalance. Its visible tilt towards India became a cause of concern for Pakistan, particularly when the US ignored Pakistan’s defence needs and counter terror equipment and even made its aid conditional to its performance against terrorists.

The warmth in Pak-US military and intelligence agencies relations started getting diluted after Pakistan was blamed for the terrorist attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul in July 2008. The US tilt towards India was again seen in the aftermath of Mumbai attacks when Indian military became highly belligerent. Since Mumbai drama backfired, India’s design to put its Cold Start doctrine to test in Sindh and South of Sutlej couldn’t materialize. Indo-US objective of getting ISI declared as a rogue outfit and to declare Pakistan’s nuclear program as unsafe boomeranged.

The US became more demanding and aggressive in 2009 after Barack Obama replaced George Bush and formulated Pakistan focused Af-Pak policy. It was designed to make Durand Line redundant and to allow ISAF to operate inside FATA freely. On several occasions Obama hurled threats that the US forces would hit a target in FATA unilaterally whenever actionable intelligence came their way. When Gen Kayani put his foot down, Obama reacted by intensifying use of drones in FATA. He also demanded firmer action by Pak Army against the militants. ‘Do more mantra’ and vilification campaign against the Army, ISI and nuclear program gathered pace. Pakistan became the convenient target to fire upon by all and sundry. Governed by its policy of appeasement, Pakistan kept offering its second cheek to the domineering bully.

In 2010, some strains occurred in Pak-US military relations. The reason behind it was continuously deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Two troop surges had failed to control the rising power of Taliban. Casualty rate of ISAF had increased substantially. Apart from reverses in Afghanistan, another worrying matter for schemers was that Pakistan Army’s image had shot up and it had disarrayed the TTP. The conspirators were extremely unhappy to see Pak Army successfully coming out of the well laid out ambushes in Swat and South Waziristan (SW). Separatist movement in Balochistan backed by foreign agencies was also going nowhere and its top leadership was in exile. Not knowing how to explain its failures, the US military in Afghanistan in conjunction with Karzai administration enhanced their trend of leveling unfounded and baseless allegations against Pakistan, its Army and ISI, and blamed them for whatever went wrong in Afghanistan. This unholy practice of blame-going is still continuing.

Failing to arrest the down slide in Afghanistan and to weaken Pak Army and Pakistan’s nuclear program, the US devised another scheme in the form of Kerry-Lugar aid bill, which was aimed at cutting Pak Army and ISI to size and allowing CIA network to reach up to our nuclear arsenal and missile sites. This move ran into snags because the Army smelt the rat and raised serious objections. When Pak Army couldn’t be ensnared in the laid out traps of Swat and SW, Pentagon and CIA hatched another plan to trap and defame Pak Army by pushing it into the cauldron of North Waziristan (NW). Gen Petraeus pronounced NW as the major cause of ISAF’s reverses in Afghanistan and claimed that bulk of terrorism was flowing into Afghanistan from NW. Successive postponement of planned operation in Kandahar was attributed to safe havens in NW. Desperate to bog down another Corps size force and thus drastically reduce Pak Army’s operational effectiveness, Pakistan was pressed to launch a major operation in NW similar to Rah-e-Rast and Rah-e-Nijat and eliminate safe havens of al-Qaeda and anti-US militants. Pakistan’s reluctance to open another front when Swat and SW had not been fully stabilized was not well received in Pentagon and in Langley, which had its effect on civilian power centres in Capitol Hill as well.

The dawn of 2011 further strained Pak-US relations when Raymond Davis was arrested on 27 January after he murdered two motorcyclists in Lahore and was put in Kot Lakhpat jail. Preliminary investigations revealed that pretending to be a diplomat, he was CIA contractor and in connivance with CIA Station Officer in Islamabad Jonathan Bank, he had been playing a major role in destabilizing Pakistan. Although he was released on 16 March after the US agreed to pay blood money to the next of kin of the deceased, the US feeling insulted never forgave Pakistan. It felt more offended when ISI started pushing out under cover agents of CIA and also monitoring the activities of US diplomats.

Gen Pasha during his meeting with CIA Director in Langley insisted that full details of CIA agents and the US Special Forces personnel based in Pakistan under different guises to be provided and repatriated at the earliest. When Panetta refused to oblige, Pasha had to abruptly call off the meeting and fly back, which further angered CIA. In retaliation, not only spate of drones increased, Operation ‘Get Geronimo’ was hatched to teach a lesson to ISI and Pak Army. Stealth assault in Abbottabad was launched on 2 May with multiple objectives, but the main purpose was to discredit the Army, ISI and PAF in the eyes of the public and getting rid of the two eyesores - Gen Kayani and Gen Pasha.

When the defenders of Pakistan - COAS and DGISI – survived the western-local media cum PML-N politicians’ debilitating onslaught and civil-military relations remained cordial, the US refused to reduce terms of engagement in war on terror and intelligence sharing in writing, turned down the calls to vacate Shamsi airbase and to terminate drone war as was envisaged in 14 May joint resolution of the parliament. Instead of attending to Pakistan’s concerns, the US played upon the theme that some elements within Pak Army and ISI had facilitated Bin Laden’s stay in Abbottabad. It then invented another story that Haqqani network (HN) based in NW was involved in cross border terrorism and its safe havens must be liquidated. HN was demonized and pressure on Pakistan was further stepped up. Pakistan’s continued refusal to mount an operation in NW, saying that with its hands already full, it could ill afford to activate a new battlefront became a major irritant.

Fearing that the US may block military and economic assistance to Pak Army, Gen Pasha undertook whirlwind tours of China and some Arab countries in May to solicit financial assistance. He availed the opportunity to apprise his hosts that ISI and Army had no knowledge of Bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad and that Pakistan was stabbed in the back by its ally. He received a favorable response from all quarters. To suggest that he had gone there to seek assistance of Arabs to topple the sitting government is ridiculous. Once GHQ decides to bring down the ruling regime, it will neither inform any other country nor would need external assistance. All the four Generals who forcibly grabbed power did so without outside assistance.

After series of attacks on US-NATO targets by Taliban in Eastern Afghanistan in July-September 2011 including attacks on US Embassy and NATO HQ on 13 September, which blew apart tall claims of US military that lot of progress had been made, the US military lost its cool when Burhanuddin Rabbani was murdered on 20 September. Admiral Mullen went crackers and started hitting the roof on 22 September. He didn’t mince his words in directly accusing ISI’s linkage with HN claiming that it was the ‘veritable arm’ of ISI. Demand for eliminating sanctuaries of HN in NW became vociferous but Pakistan continued to resist.

Revelation of memo directed against the very independence of Pakistan by Mansoor Ijaz on 22 October was yet another conspiracy to sever civil-military relations and to tempt Gen Kayani to launch a coup against the government. Mansoor is not a friend of Pakistan. Reportedly, he is connected with CIA, MI6 and RAW. He was the carrier of the memo but leaked the story five months and 12 days after it was drafted and handed over to Admiral Mullen. Memogate scandal has given rise to an assumption that President Zardari, our Ambassador in Washington Hussein Haqqani (now sacked) and our High Commissioner in London Wajidul Shams knew about the 2 May attack and when the operation failed to fetch the desired objectives, the memo was drafted at the behest of Zardari and delivered to Mullen through Jim Jones on 10 May.

While the purpose of USA was to inflict harm to Pakistan, it is a different matter that the memo affair came as a blessing in disguise. It helped in exposing America’s chosen man Haqqani and getting rid of him. His absence from Washington in the ongoing difficult days is acutely felt by his patrons in Washington. They are apprehensive that he might divulge many secrets shared between him and US leadership. Haqqani may prove to be more dangerous than Raymond Davis. Supreme Court is seized with the issue and hopefully it will extract the truth and bring the traitors to justice. Panicked by Supreme Court’s assertiveness, Federal government has taken an irrational stance that memogate scandal should be investigated by the Parliament and not by Supreme Court, not realizing that great majority of elected parliamentarians are corrupt and dishonest.

It was in the backdrop of utter failures of US military, NATO and Karazi regime in Afghanistan on the political, economic, social and military fronts and their repeated failures to earth Pakistan that provoked them to launch an unprovoked attack at Salala. It was an act of sheer frustration and desperation. This latest hostile act has boomeranged in a big way and has impelled our weak-willed leaders to take steps which they should have taken long time back to roll back the US blatant intrusions and making a mockery of Pakistan’s sovereignty. They have dared to take series of measures because the top leadership is caught up in memogate case and shield of NRO has been taken away by the Supreme Court. It is anyone’s guess whether the President recuperating from his stroke will return from Dubai or not. The ruling regime closely associated with USA is standing on a very slippery ground.

The writer is a retired Brig, author of several books and a defence analyst. Email: asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

Taking full advantage of limitless freedom of action given by Gen Musharraf, CIA and FBI cultivated militant and criminal groups to fight Pak security forces.

As many as 7000 undesirable CIA agents under different guises managed to slip in and they gave rise to drone attacks, suicide bombings and terrorist attacks.

WAR on terror initiated by USA was a ruse to denigrate Islam and crush Jihadis and anti-American Muslims, redraw boundaries of Middle East and to plunder the resources of the Muslim world. The US and its real allies have succeeded in installing puppet regimes in Kabul, Baghdad and Tripoli and in destroying these countries. Although the US and its allies have made several parts of Pakistan restive with the help of their intelligence agencies, they have so far not been able to achieve its core objective of denuclearizing it and making it its vassal.

The four airbases handed over by Musharraf regime to the US air force were used for carrying out overt and covert operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Shamsi airbase was used for employment of drones, where Blackwater elements were employed as missile loaders. The airbases became dens for CIA to trigger Baloch insurgency and destabilize Balochistan. Arms for 60 Farari camps established in interior Balochistan by rebels belonging to Bugti, Marri, Mengal tribes were also provided by NATO containers in addition to supply routes from Afghanistan and India. It has now come to light that 3400 NATO containers containing weaponry went missing in Pakistan. Shamsi base supported Jundullah group made up of runaway Sunni Iranians based in Balochistan to destabilize Sistan province of Iran.

Taking full advantage of limitless freedom of action given by Gen Musharraf, CIA and FBI cultivated militant and criminal groups to fight Pak security forces. By 2007, these agencies helped by RAW, RAAM, MI-6, Mossad and BND succeeded in destabilizing FATA, large parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan and in embroiling sizeable strength of Army and paramilitary forces in war on terror. Indo-US-Western propaganda machinery continued to spew venom to malign Pakistan’s nuclear program and its premier institutions. The purpose was to declare nuclear program unsafe and ISI a rogue outfit.

On the cultural front, the west as well as India gained a lot from the enlightened moderation promoted by Musharraf to show soft face of Pakistan. It helped in demonizing Islamists and strengthening secularism and allowing Indian and western culture to seep into Pakistani society. Likewise, higher level of education in particular was secularized and school textbooks revised to dilute concept of Jihad. It sharpened secularists-Islamists divide and gave rise to obscenity as well as religious extremism.

Efforts of Pakistan’s detractors to weaken the ISI and to disable nuclear program received a setback in 2007 when Gen Musharraf graph started declining after he committed the mistake of sacking chief justice Iftikhar. 12 May incident in which the MQM thugs gunned down over 50 workers of different political parties in Karachi further discredited the military regime. Failing to defuse the lawyer’s movement, the ruling regime suffered another setback after it’s botched up Lal Masjid operation in July 2007.

In order to redress the situation, the plot makers hatched another plan and decided to install PPP government under Benazir that was popular among the masses and completely loyal to Washington. Gen Musharraf was forced to strike a power sharing deal with Benazir and infamous NRO was issued which paved the way for Benazir and later for Sharif brothers to return home and participate in elections.

When Benazir started to veer away from her commitments made to USA, she was murdered on 27 December 2007. As a consequence to manipulated elections in February 2008, all pro-American liberal political parties PPP-MQM-ANP together with dubious JUI-F succeeded in forming a coalition government, which turned out to be the most corrupt and thoroughly incompetent. When Musharraf lost his utility value, the US got him replaced by most controversial person Zardari in September 2008. Additionally, certain handpicked America’s puppets were awarded key appointments who helped the US in pursuing its agenda.

Notwithstanding the servility of new leadership to Washington’s commands, it became upsetting for the US to find their chosen President helpless to cut the ISI to size, open up nuclear arsenal and to settle Kashmir dispute as per India’s wishes. It was disconcerting for Obama administration and Pentagon to find that neither Zardari could rein in Gen Kayani and Lt Gen Pasha, nor GHQ or ISI was willing to play ball with USA. Irritated by their defiance, the US started twisting the arm of the government and Army in rotation and at times simultaneously. The US aided by our Ambassador Haqqani then used Kerry Lugar aid bill (KLB) worth $7.5 billion stretched over five years as an instrument to deprive Pakistan of its dignity and sovereignty. It was meant to yoke the military, ISI and nuclear program. While the government fell for it, the Army rightly expressed its serious reservations.

Expansion of the US Embassy in Islamabad was undertaken to accommodate 1000 Marines and greater number of staff and undercover operatives. Large numbers of private houses were hired in 2009 in Islamabad and provincial capitals to accommodate the assault brigade. In July 2010, visa policy was liberalized by the PM allowing US citizens to enter Pakistan without ISI and Foreign Office clearance. As a consequence, as many as 7000 undesirable CIA agents under different guises managed to slip in and they gave rise to drone attacks, suicide bombings and terrorist attacks. The US also stepped up pressure on Pakistan to launch a major operation in North Waziristan (NW), declared as the most dangerous place.

The year 2011 further accentuated the security situation and made Pak-US relations rocky. Arrest of Raymond was the first watershed which caused strains, but stealth helicopters assault in Abbottabad on 2 May severely impacted military and intelligence relations between the two allied countries. Resistance offered by Army and ISI and refusal to open another front in NW angered US-NATO so much that it gave vent to its pent up anger on 26 November by way of attacking Pak Army’s two border check posts and killing 24 soldiers. Salala incident has brought Pak-US relations to near breaking point but unified the otherwise divided nation.

The civil and military leaders in Pakistan have for the first time jointly taken pro-active measures to express their displeasure. Intelligence sharing had already discontinued after 2 May. CIA had been firmly asked to repatriate all it’s under cover agents. Activities of diplomats had been kept under strict watch. After 26/11, military liaison officers at joint coordination centres were called back; GHQ refused to be part of NATO’s inquest since NATO commander, Gen Allen and Gen Dempsey had categorically announced that the attack was unintentional; Bonn conference was boycotted; NATO supply line was stopped; all scheduled military visits to USA and western countries were cancelled; Shamsi airbase was got vacated by 11 December; air defence along western border was beefed up; troops deployed along the border were instructed to resist any future incursion with full force and to shoot down intruding drone. Pakistan has decided to revise terms of engagements with USA. In this connection a high level conference of our ambassadors held a meeting on 12 December. Anti-Americanism has scaled new heights and protest marches to condemn NATO’s brutal attack are continuing.

The US on its part is maintaining its arrogance and is refusing to offer an apology or to admit its fault. Gen Allan stated that he cannot guarantee if another Mohmand-like strike takes place. In the same breath, the US is pressing Pakistan to forget the incident and to recommence business as usual. It is surprised at the hard stance taken by Pakistan and cannot reconcile with it. Unless the US apologizes and agrees to reduce terms of engagement in writing, treat Pakistan as an ally rather than a target, stops its covert war and propaganda campaign, prevents India from this practice and grants Pakistan its due role in Afghanistan’s political settlement, Pakistan must stand firm and push back US pressure.

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

US Vulture on Pakistan's sky

GEN MUSHARRAF had been declared a pariah after his illegal coup against a popularly elected government of Nawaz Sharif in October 1999. This became evident when the then President Bill Clinton came on a five-hour visit to Islamabad in March 2000 and met him coldly. One year and six months later when the US under George W Bush offered him a hand of friendship he was transported with joy. Unable to control his ecstasy, he spontaneously ceded to all the seven demands made by Collin Powel on phone on 13 September 2011. Not only that, he obsequiously kept agreeing to additional demands made by overbearing USA without taking VCOAS, his corps commanders and PSOs in GHQ in confidence. He had already carried out big changes in top appointments soon after he had taken over as COAS in October 2008 by appointing Lt Gen Mehmood as commander 10 Corps, Lt Gen Aziz Khan as CGS, Lt Gen Khalid Maqbool as commander 4 Corps and Lt Gen Usmani as commander 5 Corps. He had got rid of outspoken Lt Gen Tariq Pervez who had a tiff with him on the issue of Kargil.

In the Corps Commanders conferences he didn’t divulge the whole truth but conveyed only that much which was digestible. His 3-4 most loyal Lt Gens supported him vociferously. The very few who differed with his policies or had reservations were gradually retired or given less important portfolios. He didn’t deem it necessary to reduce any of the secret agreements on paper. Wishes of Washington were received on phone or conveyed by visiting US officials and dutifully obeyed. The US took full advantage of the unwritten commitments and often asked for much more than what was initially agreed upon.

Musharraf at his own gave total freedom of action to CIA and FBI inside Pakistan and ordered own law enforcement agencies and intelligence agencies to extend fullest cooperation. Permission to The US air force to use four airbases of Jacobabad, Pasni, Dalbandin and Shamsi was again the sole initiative of Musharraf. Even the VCOAS and CGS Lt Gen Shahid Aziz learnt about their usage by USA at a later date when those were already in use. This has now been disclosed by Gen Shahid. Sending regular troops to FATA for the first time in the history of Pakistan at the behest of USA was again Musharraf’s initiative.

All the legal and illegal demands of Washington were promptly met by Musharraf led military team including ISI and MI. They merrily kept dancing to the tunes of the US since the US and western officials kept showering praises that Pakistan was dong a wonderful job in fighting global terrorism. Pleased with its dedication and obedience, the US awarded it with a symbolic title of non-NATO ally which in practical terms had no value. Each time he ceded ground; he eroded the sovereignty of Pakistan and paved the way for Washington to micromanage Pakistan. Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Rumsfeld, Boucher and Negroponte took control of foreign and domestic policies. Their wishes became commands which had to be fulfilled at all cost.

When Musharraf sent regular troops to Waziris dominated South Waziristan (SW) around Wana in late 2002 on orders from Washington and launched a military operation in 2004 against foreign militants, the US then shifted the goalpost to Mehsud dominated SW in 2005, and next to North Waziristan (NW) in 2006. Towards the end of that year the goalpost shifted to Bajaur, and in 2007 Mohmand Agency came into sharp focus of USA. By the end of 2007, TTP under Baitullah Mehsud suddenly emerged with commanders in all seven tribal agencies. Swat and surrounding regions also became turbulent where three operations were launched. By the time the third operation was launched in Malakand and Swat in April 2009 to free it from the clutches of Fazlullah led militants, elected government had taken over in March 2008. Musharraf had left the country in August and Zardari replaced him. The new regime made no change in Musharraf’s policies. Rather, it went two steps ahead to please USA.

The US then reaffixed the goalpost at SW and forced Pakistan to launch a bloody operation where no outsider had ever defeated the local tribesmen. Maulvi Nazir leading Ahmadzai Wazirs helped the Army by way of remaining neutral and providing his area as base of operation. No sooner it was cleared of the presence of militants by end 2009, the US had moved the goalpost to NW once again. By that time not only 147000 regular troops and paramilitary forces had got outstretched and fatigued; the Army had suffered 3500 fatal casualties and injuries to thousands and was also feeling the pinch of resource constraint since the US had withheld payment of funds and counter terror equipment. Captured areas had not been fully stabilized and thousands of displaced persons were still in camps in Tank and Dera Ismail Khan. Besides these factors, other compelling factor which went against the wisdom of opening another front in NW was that Hafiz Gul Bahadur was sticking to peace deal which he had inked in July 2008. As such, the Army started resisting the US pressure, which kept building throughout 2010 and reached its peak in 2011.

To start with, the US leaders alleged that top leadership of al-Qaeda including Bin Laden was based in NW and until their sanctuaries were destroyed, it would be difficult for the ISAF to launch an operation in Kandahar. After the murder of OBL on 2 May 2011, emphasis was shifted from al-Qaeda to Haqqani network (HN), which was demonized. The goalpost presently fixed at NW will move forward to new location like South Punjab, or Quetta region, or some old location after NW is cleared since the real motive is not to defeat terrorism but to take the steam out of Pak Army. The US has employed the Army as a mercenary army, but even mercenaries are not deceptively used to trap them for eventual destruction by the paying master. Do more mantra was conceived to destroy Pak Army and the ISI. Idea was never to get satisfied and to keep complaining like a constipated mother-in-law.

The Army on orders from its supreme commander and executive head would have continued to do more blindly had certain Pakistan-shaking events not taken place in 2011. Resistance to the demand of operation in NW was the first welcome change which helped in standing up to the US bullying tactics. Arrest of Raymond Davis was the first major shake up which opened the eyes of Gen Kayani and Lt Gen Pasha. It transpired that the US pretending to be an ally had been secretly knitting a web around Pakistan and had trapped it in a strategic ambush. Whatever doubts they had were washed away after the 2 May and 22 May incidents. Desperate and emergent corrective steps taken to rescue the country from the laid out trap offended USA and it started fuming with anger.

The pent up rage exploded on 22 September when the military led by Admiral Mullen and the US civilian leadership, think tanks, print and electronic media started bashing Pakistan viciously. They huffed and puffed and directly accused ISI of its linkage with the dreaded HN and threatened to attack Pakistan. The reason why they went mad was they couldn’t reconcile with Pakistan daring to defy their dictates and trying to undo their progress achieved in enfeebling Pakistan. They felt frustrated that their decade long hard labor to reach up to the coveted prize of nuclear arsenal was being demolished. When Pak military didn’t relent and continued with its efforts to constrict the space for CIA network and also refused to jump into the cauldron of NW, the US could no longer control its fury and ruthlessly targeted Pakistan’s security border post at Salala on 26 November killing 24 soldiers including two officers. It was cold blooded premeditated murder of 24 soldiers.

Although the imperious US leaders have extended sympathies and condolences and termed the incident a tragedy, they have neither offered an official apology nor are they accepting their fault. Rather they are trying to obfuscate facts by protecting the offenders and blaming the defenders. They are maintaining their usual imperious stance because they know they will get away with this crime as well. Going by their track record of crimes against humanity, this kill for them is insignificant. They are wondering as to why Pakistan is taking it so seriously and are very sure that soon things would get back to business as usual and they would again recommence their old tactics of changing goalposts to rebuild the half-broken trap.

"One day life of a lion is far better than thousand year’s life of a jackal"- Tipu Sultan

Safety and dignity of Pakistan lays in its principled defiance and not on meek and apologetic stance. We haven’t forgotten great Tipu Sultan’s saying when he faced sure death. He said ‘One day life of a lion is far better than thousand year’s life of a jackal’. He died fighting but entered his name in golden words in the annals of history. Adversaries of Pakistan must not misjudge Pakistan’s potential by judging the capacity of its timid and servile civilian leadership, but should take into account the resilience of its 170 million people and its proud armed forces which are second to none. This nation prefers death over dishonor.

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst. Email:asifharoon7751@yahoo.com

In Afghanistan, it is well known that the government’s writ has no authority outside of Kabul, if there. But then, that is the point. The role of the governments imposed on Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, like the one they are trying to impose on Syria, is not to govern or provide for the population at all – even that most basic of functions, security. It is simply to provide a fig leaf of legitimacy for the occupation of the country and to award business contracts to the colonial powers. They literally have no other function, as far as their sponsors are concerned.

THE economic collapse that began in 2008, that was duly declared unpredictable and thoroughly unforeseen across the entire Western media, was, in fact, anything but. Indeed, the capitalist cycle of expansion and collapse has repeated itself so often, over hundreds of years, that its existence is openly accepted across the whole spectrum of economic thought, including in the mainstream – which refers to it, in deliberately understated terms, as the “business cycle”. Only those who profit from our ignorance of this dynamic – the billionaire profiteers and their paid stooges in media and government – try to deny it.

A slump occurs when “capacity outstrips demand” – that is to say, when people can no longer afford to buy all that is being produced. This is inevitable in a capitalist system, where productive capacity is privately owned, because the global working class as a whole are never paid enough to purchase all that they collectively produce. As a result, unsold goods begin to pile up, and production facilities – factories and the like – are closed down. People are thrown out of work as a result, their incomes decline, and the problem gets worse. This is exactly what we are seeing happen today.

In these circumstances, avenues for profitable investment dry up – the holders of capital can find nowhere safe to invest their money. For them, this is the crisis – not the unemployment, the famine, the poverty etc (which, after all, remain an endemic feature of the global capitalist economy even during the ‘boom times’, albeit on a somewhat reduced scale). The governments under their control – through ownership of the media, currency manipulation and control of the economy – must then set to work creating new profitable investment opportunities.

One way they do this is by killing off public services, and thus creating opportunities for investment in the private companies that replace them. In 1980s Britain, Margaret Thatcher privatised steel, coal, gas, electricity, water, and much else besides. In the short term, this plunged millions into unemployment, as factories and mines were closed down, and in the long term it resulted in massive price rises for basic services. But it had its intended effect – it provided valuable investment opportunities (for those with capital to spare) at a time when such opportunities were scarce, and created a long term source of fabulous profits. This summer, for example, saw the formerly publicly owned gas company Centrica hiking its prices by another 18% to bring in a £1.3billion profit. The raised prices will see many thousands more pensioners than usual die from the cold this winter as a result, but gas – like all commodities in capitalist society – is not there to provide heat, but to increase capital.

In the global South, privatisation was harsher still. Bodies like the IMF and the World Bank used the leverage provided by the debt-extortion mechanism (whereby interest rates were hiked on unpayable loans that had rarely benefited the population, often taken out by corrupt rulers imposed by Western governments in the first place) to force governments across Asia, Africa and Latin America to cut public spending on even basics such as health and education, along with agricultural subsidies. This contributed massively to the staggering rates of infant mortality and deaths from preventable disease, as well as to the AIDS epidemic now raging across Africa. But again the desired end for those imposing the policies was achieved, as new markets were created and holders of giant capital reserves could now invest in private companies to provide the services no longer available from the state. The profit system was given a new lease of life, its collapse staved off once again.

The World Bank’s closure of the Indian government’s grain rationing and distribution service, for example, meant that a scheme providing affordable grain to all Indian citizens was closed down, allowing private companies to come in and sell grain at massively increased prices (sometimes up to ten times higher). Whilst this has led to huge numbers of Indians being priced out of the market, and a resulting 200 million people now facing starvation in India, it has also led to record profits for the giant private companies now holding the world’s grain stocks – which is the whole point.

This round of global privatisation from the 1980s onwards, however, was so thorough that when the 2008 crisis hit, there were few state functions left to privatise. Creating investment opportunities now is much trickier than it was thirty years ago, because so much of what is potentially profitable is already being thoroughly exploited as it is.

In Europe, what is left of public services is hastily being dismantled, as right wing political leaders happily privatise what is left of the public sector, and currency speculators use their firepower to pick off any country that attempts to resist. David Cameron, following the path forced on the global South over recent decades, for example, is busy opening up Britain’s National Health Service to private companies, and massively cutting back on public service provision for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and the jobless.

In the global South, however, there is little left for the West to privatise, as successive IMF policies have long ago forced those countries in their grip to strip their public services to the bone (and beyond) already.

But there is one state function which, if fully privatised across the world, would make the profits made even from essentials such as health care and education look like peanuts. That is the most basic and essential state function of all, indeed the whole raison d’etre for the state: security.

Private security companies are one of the few growth areas during times of global recession, as growing unemployment and poverty leads to increased social unrest and chaos, and those with wealth become more nervous about protecting both themselves, and their assets. Furthermore, as the Chinese economy advances at a rate of knots, military superiority is fast becoming the West’s only “competitive advantage” – the one area in which it’s expertise remains significantly ahead of its rivals. Turning this advantage, therefore, into an opportunity for investment and profit on a large-scale is now one of the chief tasks facing the rulers of Western economies.

A recent article in the Guardian noted that British private security firm Group 4 is now “Europe’s largest private sector employer”, employing 600,000 people – 50% more than make up the total armed forces of Britain and France combined. With growth last year of 9% in their “new markets” division, the company have “already benefited from the unrest in north Africa and the Middle East.” Group 4 are set to make a killing in Libya, following the total breakdown of security, likely to last for decades, resulting from NATO’s incineration of the country’s armed forces and wholesale destruction of its state apparatus. With the rule of law replaced by warfare between rival gangs of rebels, and no realistic prospect of a functioning police force for the foreseeable future, those Libyans able to manoeuvre themselves into positions of wealth and power will likely have to rely on private security for many years to come.

When Philip Hammond, Britain’s new Defence Secretary and a multi-millionaire businessman himself, suggested that British companies “pack their suitcases and head to Libya”, it was not only oil and construction companies he had in mind, but private security companies.

Private military companies are also becoming huge business – most famously, the US company Blackwater, renamed Xe Services after its original name became synonymous with the massacres committed by its forces in Iraq. In the USA, Blackwater has already taken over many of the security functions of the state – charging the Department of Homeland Security $1000 per day per head in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, for example. “When you ship overnight, do you use the postal service or do you use FedEx?” asked Erik Prince, founder and chairman of Blackwater. “Our corporate goal is to do for the national security apparatus what FedEx did to the postal service”. Another Blackwater official commented that “None of us loves the idea that devastation became a business opportunity. It’s a distasteful fact. But that’s what it is. Doctors, lawyers, funeral directors, even newspapers – they all make a living off of bad things happening. So do we, because somebody’s got to handle it.”

The danger comes when the economic climate is such that the world’s most powerful governments feel they must do all they can to create such business opportunities. During the Cold War, the US military acted (as indeed it still does) to keep the global South in a state of poverty by attacking any government that seriously sought to challenge this poverty, and imposing governments that would crush trade unions and keep the population cowed. This created investment opportunities because it kept the majority of the world’s labour force in conditions so desperate they were willing to work for peanuts. But now this is not enough. In slump conditions, it doesn’t matter how cheap your workforce is if nobody is buying your products. To create the requisite business opportunities today – a large global market for its military expertise – Western governments must impose not only poverty, but also devastation. Devastation is the quickest route to converting the West’s military prowess into a genuine business opportunity that can create a huge new avenue for investment when all others are drying up. And this is precisely what is happening.  David Cameron is, for once, telling the truth, when he says “Whatever it takes to help our businesses take on the world – we’ll do it.”

As The Times put it recently, “In Iraq, the postwar business boom is not oil. It is security.” In both Iraq and Afghanistan, a situation of chronic and enduring instability and civil war has been created by a very precise method. Firstly, the existing state power is totally destroyed. Next, the possibility of utilising the country’s domestic expertise to rebuild state capacity is undermined against by barring former officials from working for the new government (a process known in Iraq as “de-Ba’athification”). Linked to this, the former ruling party is banned from playing any part in the political process, effectively ensuring that the largest and most organised political formation in each country has no option but to resort to armed struggle to gain influence, and thereby condemning the country to civil war. Next, vicious sectarianism is encouraged along whatever religious, ethnic and tribal divisions are available, often goaded by the covert actions of Western intelligence services. Finally, the wholesale privatisation of resources ensures chronically destabilising levels of unemployment and inequality.  The whole process is self-perpetuating, as the skilled and professional sections of the workforce – those with the means and connections – emigrate, leaving behind a dire skills shortage and even less chance of a functioning society emerging from the chaos.

This instability is not confined to the borders of the state which has been destroyed. In a masterfully cynical domino effect, for example, the aggression against Iraq has also helped to destabilise Syria. Three quarters of the 2 million Iraqi refugees fleeing the war in their own country have ended up in Syria, thus contributing to the pressure on the Syrian economy which is a major factor in the current unrest there.

The destruction of Libya will also have far reaching destabilising consequences across the region. As the recent United Nations Support Mission in Libya stated, “Libya had accumulated the largest known stockpile of Manpads [surface-to-air missiles] of any non-Manpad-producing country. Although thousands were destroyed during the seven-month Nato operations, there are increasing concerns over the looting and likely proliferation of these portable defence systems, as well as munitions and mines, highlighting the potential risk to local and regional stability.” Furthermore, a large number of volatile African countries are currently experiencing a fragile peace secured by peacekeeping forces in which Libyan troops had been playing a vital role. The withdrawal of these troops may well be damaging to the maintenance of the peace. Similarly, Libya, under Gaddafi’s rule, had contributed generously to African development projects; a policy which will certainly be ended under the NTC – again, with potentially destabilising consequences.

Clearly, a policy of devastation and destabilisation fuels not only the market for private security, but also for arms sales – where, again, the US, Britain and France remain market leaders. And a policy of devastation through blitzkrieg fits in clearly with the big three current long term strategic objectives of Western policy planners:

1. To corner as large a share as possible of the world’s diminishing resources, most importantly oil, gas and water. A government of a devastated country is at the mercy of the occupying country when it comes to contracts. Gaddafi’s Libya, for example, drove a notoriously hard bargain with the Western powers over oil contracts – acting as a key force in the 1973 oil price spike, and still in 2009 being accused by the Financial Times of “resource nationalism”. But the new NTC government in Libya have been hand picked for their subservience to foreign interests – and know that their continued positions depend on their willingness to continue in this role.
2. To prevent the rise of the global South, primarily through the destruction of any independent regional powers (such as Iran, Libya, Syria etc) and the destabilisation, isolation and encirclement of the rising global powers (in particular China and Russia).
3. To overcome or limit the impact of economic collapse by using superior military force to create and conquer new markets through the destruction and rebuilding of infrastructure and the elimination of competition.

This policy of total devastation represents a departure from the Cold War policies of the Western powers. During the Cold War, whilst the major strategic aims remained the same, the methods were different. Independent regional powers in the global South were still destabilised and invaded – and regularly – but generally with the aim of installing ‘compliant dictatorships’. Thus, Lumumba was overthrown and replaced with Mobutu; Sukarno with Suharto; Allende with Pinochet; etc, etc. But the danger with this ‘imposed strongmen’ policy was that strongmen can become defiant. Saddam Hussein illustrated this perfectly. After having been backed for over a decade by the West, he turned on their stooge monarchy in Kuwait. Governments that are in control can easily get out of control. However, for as long as these strongmen were needed for the services provided by their armies (protecting investments, repressing workers struggles, etc), they were supported. The crisis now underway in the economies of the West, however, calls for more drastic measures. And the development of private security and private mercenary companies mean that the armies provided by these strongmen are starting to be deemed no longer necessary.

Congo is a case in point. For three decades, the Western powers had supported Mobutu Sese-Seko’s iron rule of the Congo. But then, in the mid-90s, they allowed him to be overthrown. However, rather than allowing the Congolese resistance forces to take power and establish an effective government, they then sponsored an invasion of the country by Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Although these countries have now largely withdrawn their militias, they continue to sponsor proxy militias which have prevented the country seeing a moment’s peace for nearly fifteen years, resulting in the biggest slaughter since the end of the Second World War, with over 5 million killed. One result of this total breakdown of functioning government has been that the Western companies that loot Congo’s resources have been able to do so virtually for free. Despite being the world’s largest supplier of both coltan and copper, amongst many other precious minerals, the total tax revenue on these products in 2006-7 amounted to a puny £32 million. This is surely far less than what even the most useless neo-colonial puppet would have demanded.

This completely changes the meaning of the word ‘government’. In the Congo, the government’s best efforts to stabilise and develop the country have so far proved no match for the destabilisation strategies of the West and its stooges. In Afghanistan, it is well known that the government’s writ has no authority outside of Kabul, if there. But then, that is the point. The role of the governments imposed on Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, like the one they are trying to impose on Syria, is not to govern or provide for the population at all – even that most basic of functions, security. It is simply to provide a fig leaf of legitimacy for the occupation of the country and to award business contracts to the colonial powers. They literally have no other function, as far as their sponsors are concerned.

It goes without saying that this policy of devastation is turning the victimised countries into a living hell. After now more than thirty years of Western destabilisation, and ten years of outright occupation, Afghanistan is at or very hear the bottom of nearly every human development indicator available, with life expectancy at 44 years and an under-five mortality rate of over one in four. Mathew White, a history professor who has recently completed a detailed survey of the humanity’s worst atrocities throughout history, concluded that, without doubt, “chaos is far deadlier than tyranny”. It is a truth to which many Iraqis can testify.

Dan Glazebrook writes for the Morning Star newspaper and is a member of the editorial board of OURAIM publications.

DISSIDENT VOICE

WASHINGTON: US president Barrack Obama on Sunday telephoned President Asif Ali Zardari and offered condolences over the martyrdom of Pakistani soldiers in NATO air strike.

A White House statement said Obama placed a call early Sunday to Zardari expressing his regrets over the "tragic loss" and promising a "full investigation" into the incident, which has plunged the two uneasy allies into a diplomatic crisis.

Obama "made clear that this regrettable incident was not a deliberate attack on Pakistan and reiterated the United States' strong commitment to a full investigation," the statement said.

Islamabad has so far refused to take part in a US investigation into the November 26 air strikes on the Afghan border.

But the White House said Obama and Zardari nonetheless "reaffirmed their commitment to the US-Pakistan bilateral relationship, which is critical to the security of both nations, and they agreed to stay in close touch."

In the wake of the strikes, Pakistan decided not to take part in the Bonn Conference on the future of Afghanistan that opens Monday -- a decision which, together with the Taliban's boycott, has cast the event's usefulness into doubt.

Pakistan has also shut down NATO's vital supply line into Afghanistan and ordered American personnel to leave Shamsi air base.

The base is widely understood to have been a hub for the covert CIA drone war on Taliban and Al-Qaeda commanders in Pakistan's troubled border areas with Afghanistan.

Liaqat Baloch, Secretary General of Jamaat Islami

The Jamaat e Islami Secretary General, Liaqat Baloch, strongly condemning the President Obama’s condolence for Pakistan’s security personnel killed in NATO air strike has said that it was tantamount to accuse others by a culprit.

In a statement issued on Monday, he severely criticized the role of the United Nations saying that the attitude of the UN in this connection was based on Machiavellianism.

He said that the UN had lost its dignity in the eyes of Muslim community across the world due to its discrimination against the Muslims.

He said that the JI mass contact campaign was in full swing as the party was seeking public support for steering the country out of the current crises and for solving the problems of the masses.

He said that the JI would hold three major programmes during December in connection with its mass contact, public meetings at Rawalpindi and Peshawar on December 11 and December 18, and a grand sit in Lahore on December 25.

Liaqat Baloch was sure that the only JI could steer the country out of the crises being faced by the country.

He urged the masses to reject the corrupt rulers and adventurers in the next elections and allow the JI to serve them. He assured the people that the JI on coming to power would solve the problems of price spiral, unemployment, lawlessness etc. by establishing the rule of the constitution and the law.

He noted that the JI election manifesto guaranteed progress and prosperity. The JI would eradicate exploitation and injustice; recover the looted wealth from the plunderers. The prices of necessary items would be brought down by 30 per cent, load shedding would be ended, and residential plots would be provided to the homeless with interest free loans for building homes.

Liaqat Baloch said that corruption was the root cause of the present mess in the country. The rulers were corrupt from top to toe and had plundered the national exchequer transferring it to foreign banks while the masses had been thrown into the den of poverty.

He said the JI would enforce a strict accountability system to recover the public money from the thieves, extortionists and profiteers and this money would be spent on public welfare and national development projects.

The JI, he said, would also introduce a uniform education system in which the children of the rich and the poor would get the same education and the door of higher education would be opened to the poor students.